नरेंद्र भाई मोदी से मेरी पहली मुलाक़ात 1996 की शुरुआत में हुई थी और पक्का है कि वह उन्हें याद नहीं होगी। वे भाजपा के राष्ट्रीय सचिव थे। हरियाणा और हिमाचल प्रदेश का ज़िम्मा था उनके पास। मैं नवभारत टाइम्स का विशेष संवाददाता था। भाजपा कवर तो नहीं करता था, लेकिन उत्साहीलाल की तरह हर ज़गह घूमता था, सो, मोदी से ले कर गोविंदाचार्य तक सबसे मिलता रहता था। रायसीना रोड पर रह रहे अटल बिहारी वाजपेयी भी अपने शयन कक्ष में चाय पिला देते थे और लालकृष्ण आडवाणी से ले कर मुरली मनोहर जोशी और संघ-प्रमुख रज्जू भैया भी मुझे पहले नाम से बुला लेते थे, लेकिन अब ये सब बातें मोएन-जो-दड़ो का बस्ता हैं। विवादित ढांचा तोड़ा जा चुका था। मैं और ये सब उत्तर-दक्षिण धु्रव थे। मोदी तब तक रथ-यात्रा आयोजन के महा-रथी बन चुके थे, लेकिन गुजरात के मुख्यमंत्री और फिर प्रधानमंत्री के रथ पर सवार होने का उन्हें दूर-दूर तक अंदाज़ नहीं था। मोदी तब ऐसे ऐंठे हुए नहीं रहा करते थे। अपने छोटे-से कमरे में बातचीत करते थे तो भावनाओं में डूबे मनुष्य ज़्यादा लगते थे। सत्ता ने उनमें यह ऐंठ पैदा की है। संघ के प्रचारक तो वे शुरू से थे और समाज के एक विशेष तबके के बारे में उनकी राय भी वही थी, जो एक संघी की होती है, लेकिन गुजरात का मुख्यमंत्री बनने के बाद मोदी का पराक्रम आसमान छूने लगा। 2002 के दंगों के बाद तो अपनी सफाई में नरेंद्र भाई की दलीलों ने उन्हें जानने वाले सभी को चैंका दिया। अटल जी को भी। हम जैसे तो चीज़ ही क्या थे? मुझ जैसों को पहचानना तो मोदी कब का छोड़ चुके थे और 2004 में जब चैदहवीं लोकसभा के लिए चुनाव हो रहे थे तो गुजरात में मैं अपने एक पत्रकार मित्र के साथ घूम रहा था। मोदी की सभाएं सुनीं। दो-तीन ज़गह मंच से उतरते मोदी ने मेरे मित्र से तो कंधे पर हाथ रख कर बात की, लेकिन मुझे पहचानने से इनकार कर दिया। मोदी तो मुझे भूल ही चुके थे, तब से अब तक मैं भी मोदी को पहचान नहीं पाता हूं। भाजपा तो पहले भी थी। 2 से 180 तक पहुंची भी बाकी तमाम वैचारिक ताक़तों के होते हुए ही थी। प्रधानमंत्री तो अटल जी भी बने थे। लेकिन तब मानने वाले अटल जी को नहीं, भाजपा की विचारधारा को देश के लिए खतरा मानते थे। आज फ़र्क यह है कि लोगों को भाजपा नहीं, नरेंद्र मोदी बड़ा खतरा नज़र आते हैं। मोदी कांग्रेस-मुक्त भारत की बात करते हैं। मैं भाजपा-मुक्त भारत की बात नहीं करता। लेकिन मैं मोदी-प्रवृत्ति मुक्त भारतीय राजनीति का आह्वान करना चाहता हूं। मोदी-मुक्त भाजपा का सपना तो भाजपा में ही बहुत-से लोग देख रहे हैं। मेरा सपना ज़रा बड़ा है--मोदी-प्रवृत्ति मुक्त राजनीति।

Thin line between lies and stats

Pankaj Sharma

27 July 2015

The current ruling dispensation at the Centre is fudging statistics

The Narendra Modi government has every right to pat itself on its back and announce that the incidents of farmer suicides have dropped by half. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has  released data that shows a steep drop of almost 50 percent in the cases of farmer suicides in 2014 compared to 2013. The reality, however, is entirely the opposite. What the Modi Public Relations Company is not going to tell us is that the number of farmer suicides have actually increased in 2014. The NCRB did not hesitate even a bit before fudging the definition of ‘farmer’ to make us believe that they are somehow magically happier under the new regime.

Farmer suicides have consistently decreased since 2009. From over 17,000 in 2009, the figure dropped to over 11,000 in 2013. In 2014 this figure stood at over 12,000. The NCRB has cleverly changed the basic methodology and reached a slimmed down figure of 5650 suicides. Earlier, the definition of a farmer included land owner, those tilling land on lease and agricultural labour. This year, the government chose to take farm labour out of the ambit of farmer suicides. This change of definitions in an instant took 6,710 labourers who committed suicide last year out of the farmer suicide count.

To be fair, this is the first time that the government has collected specific data on farmer suicides. Earlier, suicides were recorded under various ‘profession’ heads and this included farming. This exercise never collected any data on reasons for such suicides. In 2014, such data was sought from states and compiled to assess whether the agrarian crisis led to farmer suicides — which has often been used as a direct reflection of  agrarian distress. The results of this survey, which collects specific data, have been startling to say the least. According to the latest data, actual farmer suicides due to agrarian crisis, including crop failure and indebtedness, stood at merely 2,281.  

State administrations have often been accused of not collecting data properly. Unless a farmer explicitly mentions crop loss or debt in his suicide note as the reason for suicide, the administration does not record it as a suicide related to farm distress. The new data, however, has some silver linings as it shows that those tilling land on lease are less prone to commit suicide. Of 5650 farmers who committed suicide as per NCRB, 4949 were land owners. Only 701 were tilling their land on a lease. The data also shows an inverse relationship between suicide by land-owners and labourers in a state. States with high land owner suicides have less labour suicides and vice-versa.

In the run-up to last year’s parliamentary elections Narendra Modi made two key promises in a rally at Pathankot in Punjab on  April 24. The first was bringing back black money from tax havens of the world and the second was to ensure remunerative prices for farmers by raising the Minimum Support Prices. He then repeated the same message across the country in his numerous 3D hologram suffused rallies. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s 2014 election manifesto also underlines these promises (to be more specific it does so on Page-44). Once in power, this solemn promise also was buried in the ‘Jumlebazi dustbin’. Shockingly, the Modi government filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court on February 6 this year describing ‘cost + 50%’ formula of raising minimum support prices as a distortion.

Meanwhile, the Modi government’s procurement agencies like Food Corporation of India and Cotton Corporation of India are refusing to purchase farmer’s crops even at the prescribed Minimum Support Prices, beyond the Public Distribution System quota fixed for each State. Modi has even banned the BJP ruled States of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from distributing the already announced bonus to paddy and wheat farmers. To add insult to injury, the Modi government has increased MSP of various crops for 2014-15 in negligible spurts of Rs.50 per quintal per crop unlike the unprecedented protective umbrella and fair market prices given by Congress Party between 2004 and 2014.

Market-price of non-MSP crops like Rice particularly the basmati variant, and others such as rubber etc. have witnessed a free fall in last three months. The prices of basmati rice alone have fallen hundred percent from Rs.6000-6500 to Rs.3200-3300 per quintal in this season. Basmati replica rice varieties of 1121 and 1509, which were sold for Rs.4400-4800 last year, are being sold in a distress sale at Rs.2400-2800 per quintal this season.  Cotton variety J-45 Hybrid or even J-34 Regular, which was sold at Rs.5300-5500 last year, is being sold at Rs.3800-4000 per quintal this season – well below the MSP.  A similar tale is being witnessed by distressed rubber farmers, who have seen reduction in prices from Rs.175-200 per kg last year to under Rs.120 per kg this season.

After Modi assumed power, agricultural growth has gone down from 4.7% to 1.1%. Total grain output is likely to go down by one and a half crore metric tons this year. It was 2650 lakh metric tons in 2013-14 and is expected to be less than 2500 lakh metric tons in 2014-15. Latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture reflects that area under cultivation has been reduced by 33.22 lakh hectares in 2014-15. The resultant effect would be negative growth of farm sector in 2014-15 for the first time after a decade of Congress rule.

Last Rabi season witnessed the blatant sale of Urea in black market, looting of Urea stocks by mobs and the grotesque distribution of Urea in police stations in different States. The Modi government imported only 17.37 lakh tons of Urea in the crucial period of June-October, 2014, which was one third of last year’s import. On top of it, Modi government failed to pay Rs.40,000 crore of subsidy amount to domestic Urea manufacturers.

Unseasonal rains and hailstorms damaged nearly 200 lakh hectares (494 lakh acres) of Rabi crops driving the farmer to abject penury, indebtedness and finally suicide. Vide a dictatorial order of 8 April 2015; Modi government refused to grant relaxation beyond 14% in moisture norms.  It was only after Rahul Gandhi’s visits to grain markets of Punjab on April 30 followed by an effective intervention by him in Parliament on May 1 that Modi government decided to relax moisture norms.

Deception and demagoguery is the art Modi knows best. But let us not forget that the cultivation of the earth is the most important labour of man. When tillage begins, other arts follow. The farmers farm in spite of their economic adversities, many frustrations and difficulties. Do you think, any government that ignores them can go a long way?

Be indifferent, pay huge cost

Pankaj Sharma

19 July 2015, New Delhi

Times to come will not allow any political party to appear indifferent toward the Indian diaspora.

I am travelling to some European countries these days which have large presence of Indian community. Meeting the people from different sections of Indian Diaspora is an entirely new experience for me this time. I found no dinner table where I did not witness tremendous enthusiasm among the members of Indian community for getting soon the right to vote in future elections held in India.

Indian Diaspora has a strong presence of more than two and a half crore people across the world and around half of them, that is approximately 1.25 crore, will be able to vote in Indian elections once the law is passed. Government of India has already accepted the suggestion of the Election Commission in this regard and a bill to enact the law can be introduced in the parliament anytime.

The voting right to more than one crore Non-resident Indians might otherwise look like a minor factor in comparison of the fact that more than 81 crore people were entitled to vote in last year’s Parliamentary election. But the way NRI’s political mindset has changed in last few years, the secular parties, especially the Congress party, have reasons to get worried and need to reshape their strategies for overseas Indians. Last general election had seen thousands of NRIs coming to their homes for campaigning for a political party of their choice and it is not a hidden fact that vast majority of them was supporting Bhartiya Janta Party. En-block tilt of around 1.25 crore voters in favour of any specific party is capable of changing the basic dynamics of any Parliamentary election in days to come. Hence, no surprise if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is so keen to give voting rights to NRIs, a step which in any case must be welcomed by everybody.

There was a time when the Congress party used to actively make efforts to interact with Indians living abroad. I remember how Rajiv Gandhi tried to create and revive the units of Indian Overseas Congress. But that is a history now. BJP has left Congress behind and has attracted quite a large chunk of NRIs. For at least two decades now, the BJP and the outfits of Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh have worked very actively among Indians in different countries. RSS headquarters has different desks for various geographies of the world on the lines similar to Ministry of External Affairs and selected RSS Pracharks are sent to different countries to work among Indian community. RSS recently had a silent reshuffle of these postings. “Overseas Friends of BJP” have strong organisational setups in all the countries which have large presence of Indian Diaspora. RSS efforts have yielded political results for BJP and NRIs have helped fund the RSS and its affiliates such as Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

Now, let me take you 93 years back. It was the year 1922. Mahatma Gandhi made a special request to depute somebody from the Congress party to United States of America and Canada to meet Indians living there. Gandhi felt that this exercise should be of permanent nature. Narayan Subbarao Hardikar, who founded Congress Sewa Dal a year later in 1923, was deputed to travel to USA and Canada. After coming back from these countries Hardikar prepared a report and made five recommendations. One, India must create and control public opinion in foreign countries at her own expense in order to safeguard the interest of her sons and daughters and to let the world know of India’s Ideals; two, the propaganda work should be in the hands of overseas Indians working under the direct supervision of the Indian National Congress; three, the Congress should supply authentic social and political news every week for dissemination overseas; four, Indians in foreign lands should help Congress leaders when they travel abroad on political work; and five, some of our first class students overseas should be specially trained for publicity work. Ironically, the BJP’s work among their “Overseas Friends” has followed precisely the five steps outlined for the Congress by N.S. Hardikar.

Mahatma Gandhi was a master of communication and knew how to spread his message wherever it might reach. He knew how important it was to canvass support among the Indian Diaspora during freedom struggle. It was because of Gandhi’s efforts that in the 1930s and 1940s, the Congress cause was promoted by some outstanding NRIs living in the United States—such as Krishnalal Shridharani and Taraknath Das. J. J. Singh, whose India League played a critical role in raising public consciousness about the need for freedom from British colonial rule, is a name that needs special mention in this regard.

Indian economy began to grow rapidly after 1990 and with this NRIs began to look nostalgically back to their motherland. This was the time when Congress should have made efforts in shaping the thought process of overseas Indians, because it was Congress which had taken the long required step for liberalisation. However, it was the BJP, and not the Congress, which reached out to NRIs. I have been travelling to different countries of the world as a journalist for more than three decades now and find a vast change in the psyche of Indians living abroad whether in North America, Europe, Australia, Gulf, or Africa. Not long ago, NRIs used to represent all Indians regardless of religion or ethnicity. But now the “overseas friends” have successfully converted the meaning of “Indians” to “Hindus”. They prefer to support Modi’s BJP politically as well as with their money than pre-Independence Congress which fought for the freedom of India and then worked tirelessly for building a strong foundation for the nation.

Congress must not lack in imagination, energy, and effective leadership in promoting its ideology to the global audience. Times to come will not allow any political party to appear indifferent toward the Indian Diaspora. Congress party, in its manifesto for 2014 general election had vouched that “protecting Indians overseas from exploitation or threats will remain a paramount concern”. Indian Diaspora is an important vehicle for furthering our national interests and enhancing India’s ideological image abroad. Congress and other like-minded political organisations have a responsibility to see that world understands the real meaning of Indian-ness.

Prescient foresight

Pankaj Sharma

6 July 2015, New Delhi

The Manmohan Singh government made the right decision 
by scuttling a move for a common SAARC currency.

It was in the first week of January 2004 at the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit held at Islamabad in Pakistan, that the then prime minister of India, Atal Behari Vajpayee mooted the vision for a common currency. Vajpayee’s suggestion was welcomed by loud cheers and generous applause. Almost a decade later, now when we are witnessing the fall of Greece because of its decision to join the Euro-zone, perhaps the governments of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance were prescient in not travelling down the same path.

I don’t know how earnest Vajpayee was while announcing his vision at that time. However, it would not have been easy for India to keep this idea in cold storage for long had Vajpayee became prime minister again in 2004. Even if it was one of those economic initiatives which have low rationality and high expediency quotient. The Indian electorate chose the Congress to lead the country. The Congress-led ruling party chose Dr. Manmohan Singh to lead the government. Singh had full command over the macroeconomic scenario being a noted economist himself. Within a few months of assuming charge, he raised some serious questions which forced on a much-needed reality check on the topic of SAARC currency.

Those in favour of a common SAARC currency still advance four fundamental arguments in its support. First, they argue that a common currency is a characteristic of strong regional economic integration and, therefore, a worthy goal in itself. Second, they point out that currency unification will eliminate unnecessary exchange risk and uncertainty and thereby promote inter-country trade and investment. Third, there will be a reduction of transaction costs arising from currency conversions. Fourth, advocates back a currency union in the belief that it will promote political unity amongst the constituent nations.

The first argument is really not a valid argument at all. It simply states that trans-regional economic integration is a good thing and, therefore, any country should pursue it by all available means.However, the real question is whether any such integration is in the national interest? The fourth argument is a statement of faith perhaps. The Greece episode has taught us that  one of the most important tools of economic stabilisation for any country control over the supply of its own currency. Greece is an example of using this macroeconomic intervention very poorly. Various countries in Europe have very different economies and different domestic economic situations. It is almost impossible to have a monetary policy that is equally appropriate for Greece and Germany. If today Greece regrets joining the Euro-zone, there is merit to that feeling of regret. Greece is perpetually stuck with an ineffective monetary policy with disastrous consequences for its economy. 

Similar is the situation in SAARC countries. They all have their own circumstances and economic solutions. Common currencies have usually followed political unification often attained through imperial conquest. Political unity has not been catalysed through currency unification.  Euro had  preceded full political unity to 50-year-old enterprise of European unification, spawned by the trauma of two world wars. But Greece experience has raised several questions. Greece is openly admitting that it was its mistake to join the Euro-zone.  The situation in South Asia is more complicated. It is surely a very wishful pipe dream to think that the fault lines of political conflict and rivalry between India and Pakistan can be effectively bridged through a programme of monetary unification. On the contrary, the slow progress of the South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) suggests that political antagonisms have and will seriously impede efforts at regional economic cooperation. Intra-SAARC cross-border flows of capital are even less significant in relation to total investment flows into SAARC nations.

If the loss of monetary independence and monopoly are not important, why then developed countries think in the direction of having a common global currency for the whole world?

The huge economic costs recently suffered by Argentina at the collapse of its unsustainable currency board system, a weaker version of a common currency with the US, should offer some warning to armchair proponents of currency union for SAARC. Why should India, the largest SAARC country,  consider ceding monetary autonomy to a regional SAARC central bank when countries such as USA, Canada, Australia, China and Russia are not ready even to give a thought to the idea of a common global currency?

Why in Zimbabwe’s case no developed nation is inclined to analyse the core realities of the problem?  Back in the day when they changed the name of the country from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwe Dollar (ZWE) was worth the US $ 1.47, but by 2006, the ZWE was already becoming worthless, effectively trading at just over half a cent of a US dollar. Then it got worse as hyperinflation kicked in. The result is that the government issued four rounds of currency devaluations ending with the final laughable situation of issuing a 100 trillion dollar note worth around the US $300 when issued.

Developed countries are cautious about adopting a single world currency primarily because, they say that, in the absence of single global government it would be difficult to establish adequate checks and balances on a global central bank. The U.S. Federal Reserve is technically independent, but it is also fundamentally a creature of their parliament, one that could in principle be dissolved at short notice. Nascent government institutions of the European Community are still fairly weak. But they provide some forum for supervision of the European Central Bank. Currency, particularly in its function as a unit of account, is a natural monopoly, there are several reasons why it may be desirable to maintain some level of competition as it provides a check on inflation. In an era of ongoing financial innovation, in which paper currency may well become defunct in coming years, why the economic experts of all the representative geographies with varied economic, social and political situations do not put their heads together to find out the solutions to stop ‘Greeceisation’ of national economies? Is the time not ripe now?

Author is Editor and CEO of News Views India.

A rotten state of affairs

Pankaj Sharma

29 June 2015, New Delhi 

It’s high time we demanded greater scrutiny of the BCCI and its minions.

At a press conference in Indore on 18 May 2013, I was asked a few questions about Indian Premier League (IPL) and Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI). Back then, I was the National Secretary of the Indian National Congress. In response to these questions, I had said that the party had vehemently sought for both the IPL and BCCI to come under the ambit of the Right to Information (RTI) Act. I also said that the activities of both organisations must to be scrutinised, since they have given our nation a bad name. The news was flashed prominently by the national media and international agencies alike. 

 In the coming days, my ‘well-wishers’ advised me not to get involved with such demands, since I still have a long way to go in politics. In spite of having spent more than two and a half decades in mainstream journalism, many around me felt I did not command the requisite political nous to speak on such sensitive issues. ‘Friends’ across  party lines warned me that the path I was taking could lead to political foeticide. IPL bosses started making formal statements against any steps covering the most popular sports activity under the RTI. I was made to realise that one must think twice before making such statements, even in response to media queries. I was told to remember this if I wanted a play a long innings in politics.

A young leader from my party, who held a senior ministerial position, had also made a statement on similar lines. IPL and BCCI bigwigs rejected all the arguments given by this young leader by issuing statements and through their sponsored interviews to media. The Congress-led UPA government had begun a serious exercise to put IPL and BCCI under the ambit of the RTI Act. I clearly remember  the then union government’s then Sports Secretary PK Deb issued a formal statement, saying that the Board (BCCI) will not be exempted from the RTI Act.

Few months later a committee to probe IPL matters was formed. The Supreme Court assigned Mukul Mudgal, a retired judge of Punjab & Haryana High Court, to investigate allegations of illegal betting in the IPL. The Justice Mudgal Committee was also joined by the former captain of Indian cricket team, Saurav Ganguly.  In February 2014, the Mudgal Committee presented a sealed envelope to the Supreme Court containing names of 13 individuals who needed to be probed further. The panel’s preliminary report had concluded that there are people who could be guilty of illegal betting on IPL games. 

In May 2014, following the panel’s initial report into IPL corruption, the Supreme Court gave the Mudgal committee greater powers to investigate the contents of the sealed envelope that it had provided India’s apex court. The committee was assisted by former senior Indian Police Service (IPS) officer BB Mishra, and it was given greater investigative powers for search and seizure of relevant documents and the recording of evidence, though not the power to arrest. Mishra and the panel were provided with assistance from one senior police officer each from Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi, and it was the first two months of their investigation led to the panel submitting its interim report by the end of August. The Mudgal panel submitted its final report in a sealed cover to Supreme Court in the first week of November 2014.

I have no access to the details of this report, but I know of Mukul Mudgal as a well-meaning person who is very meticulous. My first encounter with him was in the third week of July 2011 in Mumbai, when I was chairing a committee constituted by the Central Board of Film Certification to decide the fate of Prakash Jha’s film ‘Aarakshan’. P.L. Punia, the chairperson of the National Commission for Scheduled Castes, has gone all out against the censor board for refusing to screen the film for him before its release. The board turned down his ‘orders’. Punia, who suspects the film has anti-Dalit lines, issued summons to then censor board chairperson Leela Samson to appear before the commission and threatened to get her arrested for violating the constitution by clearing an “anti-Dalit film”. 

I was a member of the Board  and a committee was formed to watch the film. The committee had five Dalits drawn from regional boards. Mukul Mudgal, who has several radical verdicts on caste issues to his credit as High Court justice and is considered an authority on the subject, was also invited to give his expert opinion. I found him verystraight forward and positive. The film was given U/A certificate without a single cut. We, at CBFC, had suggested amendments to the Cinematography Act, 1952 and I got a few other opportunities to interact with Justice Mudgal when he was heading the panel constituted by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting for the purpose of framing a model bill. Yet again, I found Mudgal to be very business-like and professional in his approach. I do not know if he has given any recommendation to put IPL and BCCI under the RTI Act or not, but I am sure, he must have been given such observations that can change the face of Indian cricket.

India’s External Affairs minister and Chief Minister of Rajasthan are facing the heat and a fugitive sitting in his luxurious apartment in London like a Bond villain is flogging everybody by asking pointed questions about the use of private jets by certain individuals and telling the Directorate General of Civil Aviation to make public the passenger manifest of last ten years. He is trying to spread malicious rumours about people occupying high places by linking them to money launderers.  Is this not the time when policymakers think seriously and ban the activities of nudists’ clubs called IPL and BCCI? 

More than putting them under the ambit of RTI Act a highly empowered commission to enquire everything related to cricket and other sports is the demand of time. I might not be entitled to make this demand. But I have every right to demand this.

(Author is Editor and CEO of News Views India)